DeFi Utilisation Forecast Engine | Self-Verifying Rate Predictions

Surge Alerts (Supply Opportunity)

Pools with high utilisation where interest rates are programmed to increase. Higher utilisation = higher yields for suppliers.

hyperUSDCd EXTREME SURGE

Morpho • Ethereum

Utilisation at 98.8%. Supply crunch imminent.

Above 95% utilisation triggers exponential rate increases on most protocols.

Utilisation

98.8%

Current APY

7.74%

Confidence

85%

Past Accuracy

—

hyperUSDCm EXTREME SURGE

Morpho • Ethereum

Utilisation at 97.1%. Supply crunch imminent.

Above 95% utilisation triggers exponential rate increases on most protocols.

Utilisation

97.1%

Current APY

9.36%

Confidence

85%

Past Accuracy

—

FRAX EXTREME SURGE

Aave V3 • Ethereum

Utilisation at 96.1%. Supply crunch imminent.

Above 95% utilisation triggers exponential rate increases on most protocols.

Utilisation

96.1%

Current APY

3.94%

Confidence

85%

Past Accuracy

—

FDUSD EXTREME SURGE

Aave V3 • BNB Chain

Utilisation at 95.9%. Supply crunch imminent.

Above 95% utilisation triggers exponential rate increases on most protocols.

Utilisation

95.9%

Current APY

5.60%

Confidence

85%

Past Accuracy

—

DAI HIGH SURGE

Aave V3 • Optimism

Utilisation at 94.7%. Above optimal range.

90-95% utilisation typically sees accelerating rate increases.

Utilisation

94.7%

Current APY

3.18%

Confidence

75%

Past Accuracy

—

USDC HIGH SURGE

Aave V3 • Avalanche

Utilisation at 94.2%. Above optimal range.

90-95% utilisation typically sees accelerating rate increases.

Utilisation

94.2%

Current APY

3.94%

Confidence

75%

Past Accuracy

—

USDC HIGH SURGE

Aave V3 • Polygon

Utilisation at 94.0%. Above optimal range.

90-95% utilisation typically sees accelerating rate increases.

Utilisation

94.0%

Current APY

2.99%

Confidence

75%

Past Accuracy

—

USDC HIGH SURGE

Aave V3 • Ethereum

Utilisation at 90.9%. Above optimal range.

90-95% utilisation typically sees accelerating rate increases.

Utilisation

90.9%

Current APY

3.69%

Confidence

75%

Past Accuracy

—

steakETH HIGH SURGE

Morpho • Ethereum

Utilisation at 90.7%. Above optimal range.

90-95% utilisation typically sees accelerating rate increases.

Utilisation

90.7%

Current APY

2.09%

Confidence

75%

Past Accuracy

—

USDC HIGH SURGE

Compound V3 • Ethereum

Utilisation at 90.1%. Above optimal range.

90-95% utilisation typically sees accelerating rate increases.

Utilisation

90.1%

Current APY

3.68%

Confidence

75%

Past Accuracy

—

steakUSDC Rising

Morpho • Ethereum

Above the 'Kink' (80%). Yields trending up.

80%+ utilisation is past the optimal point where rates accelerate.

Utilisation

89.3%

Current APY

3.73%

Confidence

60%

Past Accuracy

—

USDT Rising

Compound V3 • Ethereum

Above the 'Kink' (80%). Yields trending up.

80%+ utilisation is past the optimal point where rates accelerate.

Utilisation

88.5%

Current APY

3.54%

Confidence

60%

Past Accuracy

—

Decay Alerts (Low Yield Warning)

Pools with excess idle capital where rates remain suppressed. Consider withdrawing to higher-yielding alternatives.

USDT Cold

Spark • Gnosis

Idle liquidity (28.9%). Rates suppressed.

20-30% utilisation suggests excess supply keeping rates low.

Utilisation

28.9%

Current APY

0.65%

Confidence

55%

Past Accuracy

—

USDS Frozen

Aave V3 • Ethereum

Very low utilisation (12.0%). Minimal yield.

Below 20% utilisation, rates are typically at base levels with little upside.

Utilisation

12.0%

Current APY

0.48%

Confidence

70%

Past Accuracy

—

USDC Frozen

Aave V3 • Gnosis

Very low utilisation (10.5%). Minimal yield.

Below 20% utilisation, rates are typically at base levels with little upside.

Utilisation

10.5%

Current APY

0.02%

Confidence

70%

Past Accuracy

—

sDAI Frozen

Maker sDAI • Ethereum

Very low utilisation (3.7%). Minimal yield.

Below 20% utilisation, rates are typically at base levels with little upside.

Utilisation

3.7%

Current APY

6.00%

Confidence

70%

Past Accuracy

—

DAI Frozen

Maker DSR • Ethereum

Very low utilisation (3.7%). Minimal yield.

Below 20% utilisation, rates are typically at base levels with little upside.

Utilisation

3.7%

Current APY

6.00%

Confidence

70%

Past Accuracy

—

The Physics of Interest Rates

Unlike traditional finance where central banks set rates, DeFi interest rates are purely algorithmic. They are determined by the laws of supply and demand, encoded into smart contracts. The DeFiStar Forecast Engine v1.1 analyses these contracts and validates predictions with a 10% directional accuracy rate.

How the Self-Learning System Works

Our engine makes predictions, tracks outcomes, and continuously improves through a transparent feedback loop:

Signal Generation: When utilisation crosses key thresholds (20%, 30%, 80%, 90%, 95%), the system generates a forecast with a confidence score based on historical accuracy.
48-Hour Verification: After 48 hours, the system checks if APY moved in the predicted direction and marks the forecast as correct or incorrect.
Accuracy Tracking: Each pool builds its own accuracy history, which feeds back into confidence calculations for future predictions.
Transparency: All results are publicly auditable on our Forecast Audit Trail page.

Understanding Utilisation Thresholds

Most DeFi lending protocols use a kinked interest rate model. Below the "kink" (typically 80% utilisation), rates increase gradually. Above the kink, rates accelerate sharply to incentivise new deposits and discourage further borrowing.

>95% Utilisation: Extreme surge territory. Rates often spike 10-50x to restore equilibrium.
80-95% Utilisation: Above optimal. Elevated rates trending higher.
30-80% Utilisation: Optimal range. Rates relatively stable.
<30% Utilisation: Oversupplied. Base rates with minimal yield.

Methodology & Transparency

All forecasts are stored in our utilization_predictions database with timestamps, starting conditions, and outcomes. You can audit the system's complete performance history on our Forecast Audit Trail page.

Last updated: 23 Jan 2026, 12:00 UTC. Data refreshes automatically.

Data Analytics by MooniTooki ID VERIFIED

Passed Govt ID & Sanctions Screening Note: USBC app required to view Profile/Badge Chief Data Architect and Founder at DeFiStar.io Follow on X | Medium | Paragraph | Buy me a coffee

DeFiStar.io Analytics Engine

HOURLY SYNC: ACTIVE

Status: NODE_VERIFIED . Environment integrity confirmed for the 12:00 UTC hourly window. Last data fetch: 12:00 UTC. MooniTooki’s identity is Verified via the GlobaliD network. To view secure profile data and verification badges, the USBC mobile app is required.

Sync Tolerance: <60s Drift Verified | Sampling: 24/24 Snapshot Density | Auth Tag: DFS-260123-1200-4b03 | Precision: Institutional (Hourly)

Support DeFiStar.io via Citation

Source: DeFiStar.io (2026). "DeFi Yield Analytics". Analytics by MooniTooki. Ref: DFS-260123-1200-4b03. Retrieved 23 Jan 2026, 12:00 UTC

Real-time Stablecoin Yields Tracker

The Physics of Interest Rates

How the Self-Learning System Works

Understanding Utilisation Thresholds

Methodology & Transparency