69
Greed
Index Update: Hourly (24H Smoothed)
Multi-factor DeFi sentiment analysis engine
Active Tracking: 04 Dec 2025, 10:05 UTC
The DeFiStar Fear & Greed Index serves as a robust hourly crypto market sentiment tracker. Unlike traditional equity indices which rely on survey data, this tool uses a strictly quantitative model derived from on-chain data points to measure the actual behaviour of capital in the decentralised finance ecosystem.
We calculate the 24-hour average spread between "Blue Chip" yields (safety score ≥80: Aave/Compound on Ethereum) and "Degen" yields (safety score ≤60, TVL >$50k). When this spread widens significantly above 2.5%, it indicates investors are rotating into riskier assets (Greed). When it compresses below 1.5%, capital is fleeing to quality (Fear).
High global utilisation rates (24-hour average, excluding Maker DSR) indicate borrowers are aggressively leveraging positions, usually to go long on crypto assets. Normal range is 30-70%, with 50% being neutral. Above 70% signals maximum conviction, while below 30% suggests deleveraging or risk-off sentiment.
We perform linear regression analysis on 48 hours of TVL data (hourly buckets), filtering out incomplete data snapshots. The slope is projected forward 24 hours and converted to a percentage change. Positive momentum (>1% daily projection) signals confidence (Greed), while negative momentum (<-1% daily) signals capitulation (Fear).
If major stablecoins (USDC, USDT, DAI, FRAX, LUSD) deviate more than 1.2% from their $1.00 peg (below $0.988 or above $1.012), our algorithm applies exponential penalty points (up to 20 per asset), instantly pushing the index towards "Extreme Fear" regardless of other metrics. This acts as an emergency brake on sentiment scoring during systemic crises.
The index begins at a base score of 50 (Neutral), then applies the following adjustments:
(Global Util % - 50) × 0.8, capped between -25 and +25 points(Yield Spread % - 2.5) × 2.5, capped between -20 and +30 pointsProjected Daily Change % × 2, capped between -25 and +25 pointsExample: With current values (Util: 70.1%, Spread: 3.99%, Momentum: -0.57%), the calculation is: 50 +16.1 +3.7 -1.1 = 69 points (Greed).
Final score is clamped to 0-100 range. Classification bands: 0-24 = Extreme Fear, 25-44 = Fear, 45-54 = Neutral, 55-74 = Greed, 75-100 = Extreme Greed.
Understanding the nuance between TVL Flows and Yield Spreads is critical for interpreting this index. A common pattern observed in DeFi is the "Liquidity Divergence." This occurs when prices of major assets (ETH/BTC) are stagnant or dropping, yet Utilisation Rates (Global: 70.1%) begin to climb. This typically signals that sophisticated actors are borrowing stablecoins to accumulate positions at lower prices, anticipating a reversal.
The Yield Spread (currently 3.99%) is the most direct proxy for investor risk tolerance. In a "Fear" state, the spread collapses as liquidity providers withdraw from high-APY, unproven protocols and stack stablecoins in audited, blue-chip lending markets. Conversely, in a "Greed" state, the hunt for alpha forces capital further out on the risk curve, accepting smart contract risk in exchange for double-digit returns.
Unlike simple percentage comparisons that can be distorted by single outlier data points, we use least squares linear regression across 48 hours of TVL snapshots. This smooths out scraper irregularities and provides a statistically robust trend line. The slope of this line is then projected forward 24 hours to estimate capital flow velocity, giving a more accurate picture of market momentum than point-to-point comparisons.
For more granular data on which protocols are driving these trends, visit our Protocol Leaderboard or analyse stability metrics via the Yield Stability tracker.
Disclaimer: Data is for informational purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This index does not constitute financial advice. Terms of Service apply.